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Release of the June 2010 Survey of Private Sector Forecasters

NEW YORK, New York, June 21, 2010 — The Department of Finance today released the results of the survey of private sector economic forecasters conducted in June 2010.

Overall, the June survey results suggest that the near-term outlook has continued to improve since Budget 2010. Private sector forecasters have revised up their 2010 growth forecasts for both real and nominal gross domestic product (GDP) for a second time since the budget and have further revised down their forecast for the unemployment rate.

As a result of stronger expected growth in 2010, the level of nominal GDP is expected to be about $24 billion higher in 2014 than projected in the budget. This suggests that the medium-term fiscal forecast presented in Budget 2010 remains on track. The Government will provide an updated medium-term fiscal forecast this fall.

About the Forecast

The Department of Finance regularly surveys about 15 private sector economists for their views on key economic variables. The average of these private sector forecasts has been used as the basis for fiscal planning since Budget 1994. Use of private sector forecasts introduces an element of independence into the fiscal forecast. This approach is widely endorsed by such organizations as the International Monetary Fund.

News source: Department of Finance


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