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Housing Activity to Moderate in 2011

OTTAWA, Ontario, November 15, 2010 — Housing starts are expected to continue to moderate in the last quarter of 2010. Overall, starts are forecast to stabilize at levels consistent with demographic fundamentals in 2011, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) fourth quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition.1

Housing starts are expected to be in the range of 176,700 to 194,700 units in 2010, with a point forecast of 186,200 units. In 2011, housing starts will be in the range of 148,000 to 202,300 units, with a point forecast of 174,800 units.

“High employment levels and low mortgage rates will continue to support demand for new homes in 2011. Nevertheless, housing starts will decrease to levels are more in-line with long term demographic fundamentals next year,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC.

Mr. Dugan also noted that the existing home market conditions will remain balanced over the next two years as MLS®2 sales ease and inventory levels remain elevated. Existing home sales will be in the range of 423,800 to 455,900 units in 2010, with a point forecast of 440,300 units.  In 2011, MLS® sales will move lower and are expected to be in the range of 390,600 to 483,700 units, with a point forecast of 438,400 units.

With an improved balance between demand and supply, the average MLS® price is expected to edge only modestly higher in 2011.

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

1 The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook are based on information available as of October 8, 2010. Where applicable, forecast ranges are also presented in order to reflect economic uncertainty.

2 Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) is a registered certification mark owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Information on this release:

Charles Sauriol
CMHC Media Relations

News source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)


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